PACER · Portfolio Agent for Cadence Experimentation and Reporting
Five portfolios. One frozen rulebook.
Twelve months to settle it.
Does deciding more often make you richer, or just busier? And can an AI with
a research budget beat rules that never flinch? PACER runs identical stakes through
different decision cadences, and one judgment model with live web access, then logs
every signal, every trade, and every thesis. The verdict will be data, not vibes.
Sign in Access is invite only. Viewers see performance; trade directions stay private.
How it works
Every night, PACER pulls end-of-day market data, validates it ruthlessly (partial
data means no trades, ever), computes each model's signals with zero discretion, and
writes tomorrow's trade tickets. Today, a human executes them at the market open;
nothing trades itself. Fills reconcile back through an audited email rail, and the
books are rebuilt from the raw trade log every single night. Even the days nothing
happens are recorded, because the boring days are a key part of the dataset.
The five contenders
The baseline
M0 · The ControlBuys the index on day one and never touches it again. Every other model exists to justify doing more than nothing.
The mechanicals · one frozen rulebook, three calendars
M1, M2, and M3 run identical rules over the same menu: industry sector ETFs
(technology, health care, financials, energy, industrials) plus gold and long
treasuries. The only variable is how often each one is allowed to decide.
M1 · The DisciplinedLooks at the market daily and determines a weekly adjustment Sunday night. Trades Monday morning, then watches and learns throughout the week.
M2 · The TwitchyRe-evaluates every single close with the same rules as M1. Same brain, forty times the caffeine.
M3 · The PatientSame rules as M1, but rebalances once a month. Ignores the panic brake; volatility is someone else's concern.
The judgment
AI models running the show - total control, with a choice of models.
M4 · The JudgmentA frontier AI with live web research and an unbounded universe of US-listed instruments, on a leash: hard position caps, instrument screens, and a rule that its thesis goes on the record before any trade exists. Pick its brain at kickoff: Claude Fable, Opus, or Sonnet, and a campaign can race several brains side by side, one sleeve each.
What's under the hood
Frozen rules, hashedThe ruleset freezes at launch and its hash is stamped into every decision record. Nobody quietly improves the strategy in month seven.
A tamper-proof memoryEvery evaluation stores the exact prices it saw. When data vendors restate history (they do), the decisions stay reproducible.
Judgment with a leashAI proposals pass position limits, leverage and OTC screens, and price checks. Anything invalid becomes a logged HOLD, never a hand-patched trade.
CampaignsA named experiment: pick a roster of models, pick the AI brains (one sleeve per LLM), set the stake, choose real money or paper, and race them in parallel over the same market days.
Paper modeSimulated fills at the closing price, no brokerage required. Test whether Sonnet beats Opus before a dollar moves.
The morning cockpitSign in, see exactly which trades are due, check them off as you fill them, and copy a pre-composed reconciliation email. The badge only clears when fills actually land.
Cost honestyEvery AI call logs its tokens and its dollars, hold weeks included. The scorecard shows what each campaign's judgment actually cost.
An escape hatchEvery record mirrors nightly to plain CSV. The whole experiment is reconstructable without any vendor, database, or goodwill.
The bets, registered before day one
Pre-registered hypotheses are the anti-hindsight device: written down before the first trade, graded at twelve months, no edits in between.
- H1 The nightly model trades at least three times as often as the weekly one.
- H2 All that extra trading does not beat the weekly model risk-adjusted.
- H3 In a rising market, doing nothing (M0) beats every timed model on raw return.
- H4 The weekly and monthly models both draw down less than buy-and-hold.
- H5 The trendy thematic funds rank high more often than their risk ever earned.
- H6 The AI beats at least two of the mechanical models on raw return.
- H7 But it does not beat the weekly model risk-adjusted; judgment buys return by paying volatility.
- H8 The AI shows the deepest drawdown of all five.
- H9 At the year-end reread, a chunk of the AI's wins turn out to be right for the wrong reason.
Anatomy of a campaign
- Name it. "Q4 LLM Derby" beats "test-2".
- Pick the roster. Any mix of the four mechanical models, plus one judgment sleeve per AI you want in the race.
- Set the stakes. One amount per sleeve, so every contender starts equal.
- Choose the mode. Real money runs through the morning cockpit and a brokerage. Paper simulates fills at the close.
- Start on a Monday. Every sleeve enters the same day; from then on each keeps its own cadence, and everything each one thinks and does accrues to that campaign's history.
Today, campaigns are kicked off by the operator. A hosted run-your-own-campaign tier is on the roadmap.
PACER is a personal research experiment in decision cadence, not an investment
product. Nothing here is investment advice. All trades are executed manually by the
account owner; the system is decision support and record-keeping. Hypotheses are
pre-registered and results will be reported against them, wins and losses alike.